Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. Equities saw the “Go” trend not just survive but stay strong this week as the indicator painted a week of uninterrupted bright blue bars. Treasury bond prices stayed in a strong “NoGo” trend this week with consecutive purple bars. The U.S. commodity index is seeing its “Go” trend strengthen with a strong blue bar and the dollar seems set in its “Go” trend as well.
$SPY Able to Set New Higher High
The GoNoGo chart below shows that resurgent strength has pushed price to new highs on strong blue “Go” bars. This came after GoNoGo Oscillator found support twice in quick succession at the zero line. This caused the chart to show multiple Go Trend Continuation Icons and that new momentum in the direction of the trend was enough to push price higher.
The longer time frame chart shows us that GoNoGo Trend painted another strong blue “Go” bar this past week and we see another higher close on this weekly chart. We are now in a period of consecutive strong blue bars as the trend continues higher. Having taken out the prior high we turn our eye to the oscillator panel where we see that momentum is in positive territory but not yet overbought.
New “Go” Trend Strengthens in Yields
Treasury bond yields are in a “Go” trend now that has seen the indicator move through aqua bars to stronger blue “Go” colors. This comes as price closes in on some potential resistance from previous lows in the last “NoGo” trend. GoNoGo Oscillator is coming out of overbought territory and so we see a Go Countertrend Correction Icon warning us that price may struggle to go higher in the short term. We will then watch to see what happens should the oscillator close in on the zero line.
The Dollar Races Higher in New “Go” Trend
Price continued to climb this week as it raced through aqua bars and into bright blue “Go” colors. As GoNoGo Oscillator fell from overbought levels, we see that there is a Go Countertrend Correction Icon that indicates price may struggle to go higher in the short term and we will watch to see if it can consolidate at these elevated levels without falling too much from the high.
USO Enters “Go” Trend Painting Weak Aqua Bars
$USO failed at prior high resistance but nevertheless has been able to find a “Go” trend with the indicator painting weak aqua bars. GoNoGo Oscillator is falling toward the zero line on heavy volume. We will watch to see if it finds support at that level. If it does, we will know that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the “Go” trend and we can look for signs of trend continuation and an attack on new highs.
Gold Prices Stay in Trend
GoNoGo Trend showed that there was weakness in the “Go” trend last week as price fell from the last Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow). However, on the last bar of the week price leapt higher and GoNoGo Trend painted a fresh strong blue “Go” bar. This comes as GoNoGo Oscillator is testing the zero line from above. We will watch to see if it can find support at this level and if it does we will expect trend continuation and a challenge for a new high.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 4 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLK, $XLY, $XLE, and $XLI, are painting relative “Go” bars.
Technology Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the energy sector. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLK. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLK is a new out-performer, with GoNoGo Trend painting strong blue “Go” bars. If we look at the breakdown of the groups in the map below we can see where that outperformance is coming from. Painting strong blue “Go” bars in the 3rd panel, the semi-conductor index is strongly out-performing. 
$NVDA Breaks Higher above Downward Sloping Resistance
The chart below shows that after some struggles, price has broken above falling resistance. As it does so, GoNoGo Trend moves from weaker aqua bars to strong blue bars. Price is now closing in on highs from June and so we will watch to see if it can continue higher from here. GoNoGo Oscillator found support at the zero line which helped propel price higher but is now falling out of overbought territory and so we see a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) above price telling us that it may struggle for new highs in the short term.
Trying to Strong $ARM Overhead Resistance
$ARM is running up against horizontal levels of resistance that we see on the chart. GoNoGo Trend is painting strong blue “Go” and we saw an entire week of uninterrupted strong blue bars this past week. GoNoGo Oscillator found support at the zero line just a few bars ago as it rallied back into positive territory and we saw a Go Trend Continuation Icon (green circle) on the chart. With momentum now positive at a value of 2 and rising, we will watch to see if this gives price the push it needs to break above resistance and set a new high as the “Go” trend progresses.
