Good morning and welcome to this week’s Flight Path. Equities saw the “Go” trend continue this week as the indicator painted strong blue bars the entire week. Treasury bond prices saw the “NoGo” trend continue with a week of strong purple bars. U.S. commodities saw the “Go” trend continue this wek and at the end of the week we saw a new strong blue bar. GoNoGo Trend shows that trend in the U.S. dollar continued to be a “Go” with mostly strong blue bars.
$SPY Remains in “Go” Trend with Price at Highs
The GoNoGo chart below shows that the trend is strong for U.S. equities. GoNoGo Trend paints a week of uninterrupted strong blue bars as price remains elevated and close to highs. GoNoGo Oscillator has fallen from over bought levels and is now at a value of 3. This confirms the trend we see in the price panel.
The longer time frame chart tells us that the trend is still well and truly in place as we see another strong blue “Go” bar at new highs. GoNoGo Oscillator is approaching overbought territory and this represents enthusiasm from the market as we see prices climb higher.
The “Go” Trend Survives Another Week
Treasury bond yields emerged out of the “NoGo” last week and now we see that this week we have been able to maintain the new “Go” trend. The indicator paints strong blue bars and GoNoGo Oscillator is in positive territory at a value of 3.
The Dollar Continues to Show Strength
Last week we saw a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) telling us that price may struggle to go higher in the short term. As is sometimes the case in strong trends, price blew right past this warning and we saw strong blue “Go” bars and new highs this week. GoNoGo Oscillator has remained elevated this week as it stays in overbought territory.
USO Falters This Week with Consecutive Amber “Go Fish” Bars
$USO saw price struggle this week after failing at resistance the week before. Price gapped lower early last week and GoNoGo Trend painted a string of “Go Fish” bars. GoNoGo Oscillator is riding the zero line as we see the beginnings of a GoNoGo Squeeze build. We will need to see the oscillator find support at the zero line if there is any hope of the “Go” trend returning.
Gold Prices Soar Even Higher
GoNoGo Trend showed that the “Go” trend was in full force this week as the indicator painted a run of strong blue bars as price raced to new highs. GoNoGo Oscillator races to overbought territory and is now at an extreme value of 6. We will watch to see if there is any short term correction if GoNoGo Oscillator comes out of overbought territory.
Sector RelMap
Below is the GoNoGo Sector RelMap. This GoNoGo RelMap applies the GoNoGo Trend to the relative strength ratios of the sectors to the base index. With this view we can get a sense of the relative out performance and relative underperformance of the sectors. 5 sectors are in relative “Go” trends. $XLK, $XLF, $XLI, $XLB, and $XLU, are painting relative “Go” bars.
Utilities Sub-Group RelMap
The chart below shows a relative trend breakdown of the sub groups within the utilities sector. The Sub-Group RelMap plots the GoNoGo Trend of each sub index to the $XLU. We saw in the above GoNoGo Sector RelMap that $XLU is a new out-performer, with GoNoGo Trend painting strong blue “Go” bars. If we look at the breakdown of the groups in the map below we can see where that outperformance is coming from. Painting strong blue “Go” bars in the 1st panel is the conventional electricity sub index. 
$VST Sets up For New Highs
The chart below shows that after a new high earlier in the month we saw a Go Countertrend Correction icon (red arrow) telling us that in the short term price may struggle to go higher. Indeed, price fell and GoNoGo Trend painted some weaker aqua bars as GoNoGo Oscillator fell to test the zero line from above. As the oscillator found support we saw a couple of Go Trend Continuation Icons (green circles) under price. Now, the oscillator is back testing that level. If it continues to find support we will expect price to make an attempt at a new high.
$MNTK Looks for Support in “Go” Trend
$MNTK entered a “Go” trend at the end of September and we saw price rise close to prior highs. As the oscillator fell out of overbought territory we saw a Go Countertrend Correction Icon (red arrow) indicating that price may struggle to go higher in the short term. GoNoGo Trend has since painted weaker aqua bars. GoNoGo Oscillator has fallen to test the zero level from above and we will watch to see if it finds support. If it does, and rallies back into positive territory we can expect price to make a run at new highs as we will know that momentum is resurgent in the direction of the “Go” trend.
